On the occasion of World Recycling Day, celebrated on March 18, CONAI released its first estimates for 2026, indicating that the recycling rate for packaging in Italy is expected to be around 75%, slightly down from the last consolidated figure of 76.7% in 2024
According to CONAI, the volume of packaging expected to be sent for recycling in 2026 is estimated at nearly 11 million tons, corresponding to a 75% recycling rate compared to 76.7% in 2024. This slight decline is due to challenges affecting certain sectors of the national recycling industry, even though separate waste collection continues to grow at a faster pace than the amount of packaging placed on the market, which CONAI expects will exceed 14 million tons in 2026.
CONAI President Ignazio Capuano urges caution: “The dynamics we observe in recycling rates are influenced not only by contextual factors but also by statistical ones. On top of that, there are specific market dynamics affecting individual supply chains.”
Looking in detail at the different sectors, the paper industry is affected by a decline in domestic demand, partly offset by an increase in exports. Another critical issue is the growing level of impurities in collected materials, which makes it more difficult to ensure adequate flows suitable for recycling.
For plastics, CONAI observes a significant slowdown in recent months. This trend is also linked to the increasing quantities of selected packaging waste that are not absorbed by the market, which risks negatively affecting the accounting of actual recycled flows.
President Capuano emphasizes that the plastics sector is going through a particularly critical phase, which also directly impacts management costs. These costs are rising due to both the lack of outlets for recycled materials and the higher costs of recycling itself. The situation is further complicated by globalization, which exposes the Italian recycling industry to competition from low-cost finished products imported from non-European countries, penalizing domestic companies. Moreover, energy costs in Italy, among the highest in Europe, heavily impact a sector that has traditionally been energy-intensive.
In this context, it is expected that in 2026 over 5.5 million tons of end-of-life packaging will be managed by the CONAI system and its sector consortia, up from 4.74 million tons recorded in 2024. This trend confirms the subsidiary role of the CONAI system, which tends to expand when the market withdraws due to the loss of profitability of recyclable materials, and to give space back to the market when recycling becomes economically viable again.
The evolution of the international and geopolitical context in the coming months could significantly affect Italy’s overall results for 2026. In this scenario, Capuano stresses the urgency of adopting industrial policies that promote the use of locally recycled materials: “We cannot afford to nullify the benefits of recycling with imports from outside Europe; shipments from the Far East are not environmentally neutral. Recognizing, including economically, the environmental value of recycling carried out locally is essential to prevent companies from being exposed to environmental and economic speculation.”
Regulatory and international uncertainties are already affecting Italian businesses, leading to a reduction in investments in eco-design and sustainability. CONAI highlights that the main causes include doubts regarding the new European Packaging Regulation, as well as divergent approaches among the world’s major economic powers.
Clearer rules are needed to strengthen industrial planning and business confidence, but it is also essential to make financing simpler and more accessible for small and medium-sized enterprises - concluded Capuano.
